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Deportiva Minera vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
El Palmar
El Palmar
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Deportiva Minera50%
×Draw26%
El Palmar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.54
El Palmar
0.99

Deportiva Minera creates 56% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 111 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
76%
Deportiva Minera or El Palmar
74%
Draw or El Palmar
50%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
26%
El Palmar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
79%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
45%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
20%
El Palmar 1+ goals
63%
El Palmar 2+ goals
26%
El Palmar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
67%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
50%
level
26%
El Palmar scores more
24%

Deportiva Minera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportiva Minera vs El Palmar

El Palmar beat Deportiva Minera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.