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Deportes Valdivia vs D. Puerto Montt — Primera B 2018

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
CANC
00:00
D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
10/20/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 28Estadio El Parque Municipal (Valdivia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportes Valdivia41%
×Draw27%
D. Puerto Montt32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.33
D. Puerto Montt
1.15

Deportes Valdivia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 91 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.35
D. Puerto Montt
0.97

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.32
D. Puerto Montt
1.32

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

D. Puerto Montt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
68%
Deportes Valdivia or D. Puerto Montt
73%
Draw or D. Puerto Montt
59%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
19%
D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
74%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
38%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
15%
D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
68%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
32%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
56%
D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

D. Puerto Montt away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.35 + D. Puerto Montt defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

D. Puerto Montt attack 0.97 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
41%
level
27%
D. Puerto Montt scores more
32%

Deportes Valdivia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportes Valdivia face D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)

Primera B returns with Deportes Valdivia hosting D. Puerto Montt. Match starts October 20, 2018. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportes Valdivia host D. Puerto Montt at Estadio El Parque Municipal (Valdivia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.