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Deportes Tolima vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
3/14/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportes Tolima55%
×Draw27%
Internacional de Bogota18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Tolima
1.44
Internacional de Bogota
0.71

Deportes Tolima creates 103% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Deportes Tolima
1.31
Internacional de Bogota
0.81

allows per match

Deportes Tolima
0.60
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Deportes Tolima-0.45scores less
Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw
82%
Deportes Tolima or Internacional de Bogota
73%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
45%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
28%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
76%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
42%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
18%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
51%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
16%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
75%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.60 · 7 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.31 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more
55%
level
27%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
18%

Deportes Tolima at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Internacional de Bogota

Deportes Tolima beat Internacional de Bogota 1-0 in Primera A on March 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibagué.