Deportes Tolima 0–0 Huila: Result & Stats

Deportes Tolima

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huila

9/8/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 10Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Deportes Tolima55%

×Draw27%

Huila17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchHuila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.66

Deportes Tolima

1.42

Huila

0.66

Deportes Tolima creates 115% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 70 away

1.48

creates per match

0.53

0.78

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.48

Huila

0.53

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.78

Huila

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Huila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

83%

Deportes Tolima or Huila

73%

Draw or Huila

45%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

28%

Huila wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

76%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

41%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

17%

Huila 1+ goals

48%

Huila 2+ goals

14%

Huila 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

76%

Huila (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 198 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.48 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Huila attack 0.53 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

55%

level

27%

Huila scores more

17%

Deportes Tolima at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff