Deportes Tolima 2–2 Atletico Nacional

Deportes Tolima

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Atletico Nacional

C. Zapata 35' (OG)

D. Herazo 29'

Jader 54'

Jefferson Duque 45+4' (pen)

5/18/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 20Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Deportes Tolima43%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.89

Deportes Tolima

1.20

Atletico Nacional

0.89

Deportes Tolima creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

1.36

creates per match

1.17

0.60

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.36

Atletico Nacional

1.17

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.60

Atletico Nacional

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

73%

Deportes Tolima or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

57%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

70%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

34%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

12%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

59%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

22%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

61%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.60 · 11 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.36 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atletico Nacional attack 1.17 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

43%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

27%

Deportes Tolima at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Guzmán

Deportes Tolima · M

7.5

Match Events

29'

D. Herazo↳ J. Nieto

35'

C. ZapataOwn goal

45+2'

Juan David Ríos

45'

JaderPenalty confirmed

45+4'

Jefferson DuquePenalty

54'

Jader↳ D. Banguero

59'

Yeison Guzmán

62'

J. Arboleda← L. Riascos

62'

B. Gil← D. Herazo

65'

Nelson Deossa

71'

Francisco da Costa← Jefferson Duque

71'

J. Torres← Jader

71'

Jhon Duque← J. Barrera

76'

F. Boné← S. Lucumí

80'

Juan Torres

81'

B. Palacios← Y. Candelo

85'

J. Rubiano← J. Nieto

85'

S. Mosquera← A. Román

86'

Juan Rubiano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesAtletico

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots12

3Corners9

12Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots12

6On Target4

12Off Target5

1Blocked3

13Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

452Total Passes326

394Accurate Passes256

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Primera A: Deportes Tolima 2–2 Atletico Nacional

Deportes Tolima and Atletico Nacional drew 2-2 in Primera A on May 18, 2023.

Goals: D. Herazo (29'), C. Zapata (35' o.g.), Jefferson Duque (45+4' pen), Jader (54').

Deportes Tolima controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibagué.

Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Deportes Tolima 2–2 Atletico Nacional