Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 13+ matches
Deportes Tolima45%
Atletico Nacional26%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportes Tolima creates 40% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportes Tolima ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.63 · 13 matches
Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportes Tolima attack 1.39 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25
Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.89
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Deportes Tolima at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Atletico Nacional
JuniorDeportes Tolima
Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Bucaramanga
Once Caldas
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
Águilas Doradas
Millonarios
Deportivo Cali
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
Chico
Deportivo Pereira
Union Magdalena
Envigado
Jaguares
CucutaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Deportes Tolima host Atletico Nacional on Thursday, 28 March 2019 at 01:15. The match is part of the Primera A 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima beat Atletico Nacional 2-1 in Primera A on March 28, 2019.
Goals: V. Hernández (48'), A. Castro (53'), L. González (81').
Deportes Tolima controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 8.
The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibague.