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Deportes Tolima vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
9/29/2018Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Deportes Tolima49%
×Draw27%
Águilas Doradas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Tolima
1.39
Águilas Doradas
0.88

Deportes Tolima creates 58% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 170 away

creates per match

Deportes Tolima
1.48
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Deportes Tolima
0.78
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw
76%
Deportes Tolima or Águilas Doradas
73%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
51%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
24%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
40%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
16%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
59%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
22%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
67%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 198 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.48 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more
49%
level
27%
Águilas Doradas scores more
24%

Deportes Tolima at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Águilas Doradas

Deportes Tolima and Águilas Doradas drew 1-1 in Primera A on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibague.