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Deportes Rengo vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Rengo
Deportes Rengo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
General Velásquez
General Velásquez
3/22/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzmán Díaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportes Rengo37%
×Draw27%
General Velásquez36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Rengo
1.26
General Velásquez
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 77 away

creates per match

Deportes Rengo
1.21
General Velásquez
1.06

allows per match

Deportes Rengo
1.40
General Velásquez
1.31

finishing

Deportes Rengo+0.00on par
General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Rengo ↓

General Velásquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Rengo or draw
64%
Deportes Rengo or General Velásquez
73%
Draw or General Velásquez
63%

Winning margin

Deportes Rengo wins by 2+
16%
General Velásquez wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportes Rengo 1+ goals
72%
Deportes Rengo 2+ goals
36%
Deportes Rengo 3+ goals
13%
General Velásquez 1+ goals
71%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
35%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)
51%
General Velásquez (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Rengo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Rengo attack 1.21 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportes Rengo scores more
37%
level
27%
General Velásquez scores more
36%

Deportes Rengo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportes Rengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Rengo vs General Velásquez

General Velásquez beat Deportes Rengo 1-0 in Segunda División on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzmán Díaz in Rengo.