Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Temuco

Deportes Iquique

Preview

00:30

Deportes Temuco

7/25/2026

Primera B · Round 17Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Big match

47%

Deportes Iquique

model favours

47%25%28%

81% of Deportes Temuco’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportes Iquique47%

×Draw25%

Deportes Temuco28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes IquiqueExpected goals in this matchDeportes Temuco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.16

Deportes Iquique

1.57

Deportes Temuco

1.16

Deportes Iquique creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 117 away

1.79

creates per match

1.08

1.23

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Deportes Iquique

1.79

Deportes Temuco

1.08

allows per match

Deportes Iquique

1.23

Deportes Temuco

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Deportes Temuco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Deportes Temuco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw

72%

Deportes Iquique or Deportes Temuco

75%

Draw or Deportes Temuco

53%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

24%

Deportes Temuco wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

79%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

46%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

21%

Deportes Temuco 1+ goals

69%

Deportes Temuco 2+ goals

32%

Deportes Temuco 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

62%

Deportes Temuco (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Deportes Temuco away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.79 + Deportes Temuco defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.57

Deportes Temuco attack 1.08 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more

47%

level

25%

Deportes Temuco scores more

28%

Deportes Iquique at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportes Temuco score first in only 25% of matches
Both teams score in 73% of Deportes Iquique’s matches
Both teams score in only 31% of Deportes Temuco’s matches
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings
Deportes Iquique sit 14, Deportes Temuco 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Iquique

DWLDL

Temuco

LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff