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Depor FC vs Huila — Primera B 2018

Depor FC
Depor FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Huila
Huila
3/11/2020Primera BPrimera B · Round 7Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Depor FC32%
×Draw30%
Huila39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Depor FC
1.00
Huila
1.14

Huila creates 14% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 89 away

creates per match

Depor FC
0.85
Huila
1.01

allows per match

Depor FC
1.27
Huila
1.16

finishing

Depor FC+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Depor FC ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Depor FC or draw
61%
Depor FC or Huila
70%
Draw or Huila
68%

Winning margin

Depor FC wins by 2+
12%
Huila wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Depor FC 1+ goals
63%
Depor FC 2+ goals
26%
Depor FC 3+ goals
8%
Huila 1+ goals
68%
Huila 2+ goals
32%
Huila 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Depor FC (draw refunded)
45%
Huila (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Depor FC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.27 · 129 matches

Huila away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Depor FC attack 0.85 + Huila defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Huila attack 1.01 + Depor FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Depor FC scores more
32%
level
30%
Huila scores more
39%

Huila at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Depor FC 1 – 2 Huila

Huila beat Depor FC 2-1 in Primera B on March 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.