Depor FC 0–2 Cortulua: Result & Stats | Primera B

Depor FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cortulua

2/9/2019

Primera B · Apertura - 2Estadio Cacique Jamundí (Jamundí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Depor FC33%

×Draw28%

Cortulua39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Depor FCExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.25

Depor FC

1.14

Cortulua

1.25

Cortulua creates 10% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 93 away

0.85

creates per match

1.23

1.27

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Depor FC

0.85

Cortulua

1.23

allows per match

Depor FC

1.27

Cortulua

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Depor FC+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Depor FC ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Depor FC or draw

61%

Depor FC or Cortulua

72%

Draw or Cortulua

67%

Winning margin

Depor FC wins by 2+

14%

Cortulua wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Depor FC 1+ goals

68%

Depor FC 2+ goals

32%

Depor FC 3+ goals

11%

Cortulua 1+ goals

71%

Cortulua 2+ goals

36%

Cortulua 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Depor FC (draw refunded)

46%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Depor FC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.27 · 129 matches

Cortulua away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Depor FC attack 0.85 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cortulua attack 1.23 + Depor FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Depor FC scores more

33%

level

28%

Cortulua scores more

39%

Cortulua at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff