Den Bosch 3–1 Jong PSV U21: Result & Stats

Den Bosch

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Jong PSV U21

4/1/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 32Stadion De Vliert ('s-Hertogenbosch)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Den Bosch46%

×Draw23%

Jong PSV U2132%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Den BoschExpected goals in this matchJong PSV U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.51

Den Bosch

1.86

Jong PSV U21

1.51

Den Bosch creates 23% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 149 away

1.67

creates per match

1.52

1.50

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Den Bosch

1.67

Jong PSV U21

1.52

allows per match

Den Bosch

1.50

Jong PSV U21

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

Jong PSV U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw

68%

Den Bosch or Jong PSV U21

77%

Draw or Jong PSV U21

54%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+

25%

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals

84%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

55%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

28%

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

78%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

44%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

59%

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.86

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Den Bosch scores more

46%

level

23%

Jong PSV U21 scores more

32%

Den Bosch at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Den Bosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff