Democrata SL 1–1 Nacional AC MG: Result & Stats

Democrata SL

FT

1 – 1

Nacional AC MG

3/7/2020

Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Democrata SL44%

×Draw30%

Nacional AC MG26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Democrata SLExpected goals in this matchNacional AC MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.84

Democrata SL

1.20

Nacional AC MG

0.84

Democrata SL creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

1.27

creates per match

1.03

0.65

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Democrata SL

1.27

Nacional AC MG

1.03

allows per match

Democrata SL

0.65

Nacional AC MG

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Democrata SL+0.00on par

Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata SL ↓

Nacional AC MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Democrata SL or draw

74%

Democrata SL or Nacional AC MG

70%

Draw or Nacional AC MG

56%

Winning margin

Democrata SL wins by 2+

19%

Nacional AC MG wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Democrata SL 1+ goals

70%

Democrata SL 2+ goals

34%

Democrata SL 3+ goals

12%

Nacional AC MG 1+ goals

57%

Nacional AC MG 2+ goals

21%

Nacional AC MG 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Democrata SL (draw refunded)

63%

Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata SL at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata SL attack 1.27 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Nacional AC MG attack 1.03 + Democrata SL defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Democrata SL scores more

44%

level

30%

Nacional AC MG scores more

26%

Democrata SL at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff