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Delta Porto Tolle vs Este — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
PST
13:30
Este
Este
3/22/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 32Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle36%
×Draw26%
Este38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.27
Este
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 102 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Este
1.09

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Este
1.24

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Este+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
62%
Delta Porto Tolle or Este
74%
Draw or Este
64%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
15%
Este wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
72%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
36%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
14%
Este 1+ goals
73%
Este 2+ goals
38%
Este 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
48%
Este (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Este attack 1.09 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
36%
level
26%
Este scores more
38%

Este at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Delta Porto Tolle host Este

March 22, 2020: Delta Porto Tolle take on Este in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Delta Porto Tolle host Este at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.