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Dellach im Gailtal vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
CANC
00:00
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
3/29/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 18Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dellach im Gailtal52%
×Draw21%
St. Jakob Rosental27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dellach im Gailtal
2.10
St. Jakob Rosental
1.48

Dellach im Gailtal creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 76 away

creates per match

Dellach im Gailtal
2.65
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

Dellach im Gailtal
1.45
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dellach im Gailtal ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dellach im Gailtal or draw
73%
Dellach im Gailtal or St. Jakob Rosental
79%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
48%

Winning margin

Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
30%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
88%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
62%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
35%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
77%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
43%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
66%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dellach im Gailtal at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.65 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.10

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dellach im Gailtal scores more
52%
level
21%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
27%

Dellach im Gailtal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dellach im Gailtal face St. Jakob Rosental (Landesliga - Karnten)

Landesliga - Karnten returns with Dellach im Gailtal hosting St. Jakob Rosental. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dellach im Gailtal host St. Jakob Rosental at Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.