Delfin SC 2–2 Tecnico Universitario: Result & Stats

Delfin SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tecnico Universitario

12/3/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 15Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Delfin SC48%

×Draw27%

Tecnico Universitario25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfin SCExpected goals in this matchTecnico Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.93

Delfin SC

1.39

Tecnico Universitario

0.93

Delfin SC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 129 away

1.38

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Delfin SC

1.38

Tecnico Universitario

0.86

allows per match

Delfin SC

1.00

Tecnico Universitario

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Tecnico Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw

75%

Delfin SC or Tecnico Universitario

73%

Draw or Tecnico Universitario

52%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+

23%

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals

75%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

40%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

16%

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

61%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

24%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

65%

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.38 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Delfin SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Delfin SC scores more

48%

level

27%

Tecnico Universitario scores more

25%

Delfin SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff