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Delfin SC vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
Preview
18:15
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
7/26/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 22Estadio Jocay
47%
Delfin SC
model favours
47%28%25%

Leones del Norte are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Delfin SC47%
×Draw28%
Leones del Norte25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.33
Leones del Norte
0.90

Delfin SC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 10 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
1.37
Leones del Norte
0.80

allows per match

Delfin SC
0.99
Leones del Norte
1.30

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
75%
Delfin SC or Leones del Norte
72%
Draw or Leones del Norte
53%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
22%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
74%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
38%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
15%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
59%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
23%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
65%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 131 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.37 + Leones del Norte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leones del Norte attack 0.80 + Delfin SC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Delfin SC scores more
47%
level
28%
Leones del Norte scores more
25%

Delfin SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Delfin SC score first in only 22% of matches
  • Leones del Norte have scored in 11 games running
  • 72% of Delfin SC’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of Leones del Norte’s matches
  • Leones del Norte outscore their xG (1.1 vs 0.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Delfin SC
Defensively solid
Leones del Norte
Balanced
45%Possession45%
71%Pass accuracyBiggest gap78%
9.4Shots8.9
0.62xG0.66
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Delfin SCLeones del Norte

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SC
LWWLD
Norte
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Delfin SC host Leones del Norte

July 26, 2026: Delfin SC take on Leones del Norte in Liga Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Delfin SC host Leones del Norte at Estadio Jocay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.