Delfin SC 0–0 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Delfin SC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

3/16/2025

Liga Pro · Round 5Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Delfin SC49%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cuenca24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfin SCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.92

Delfin SC

1.42

Deportivo Cuenca

0.92

Delfin SC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 131 away

1.35

creates per match

0.85

0.98

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Delfin SC

1.35

Deportivo Cuenca

0.85

allows per match

Delfin SC

0.98

Deportivo Cuenca

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw

76%

Delfin SC or Deportivo Cuenca

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

51%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals

76%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

41%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

67%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.98 · 129 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.49 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.35 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Delfin SC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Delfin SC scores more

49%

level

27%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

24%

Delfin SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

K. Moreno

Deportivo Cuenca · M

7.5

Match Events

33'

M. Piedra

37'

N. Gallardo

57'

M. Reyes← F. Zicarelli

62'

E. Guevara← L. Gustavino

70'

M. A. Solis Jaramillo← A. Venezia

70'

L. Arroyo← L. Mancinelli

71'

J. Vivar← J. W. Cuero Mercado

71'

M. Levato← G. Cagua

73'

J. Vivar

76'

K. Moreno

79'

O. Medina← C. A. Cuero Q.

79'

J. Leon← L. Castro

84'

D. Noboa← S. Morocho

90'

N. Gallardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DelfinDeportivo

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots9

3Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots9

2On Target2

7Off Target3

3Blocked4

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

434Total Passes352

341Accurate Passes237

79%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2