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Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
11/14/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 13Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Delfin SC49%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cuenca24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.44
Deportivo Cuenca
0.93

Delfin SC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 131 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
1.38
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

Delfin SC
1.00
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
76%
Delfin SC or Deportivo Cuenca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
51%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
76%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
42%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.38 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Delfin SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Delfin SC scores more
49%
level
27%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
24%

Delfin SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Delfin SC 0–0 Deportivo Cuenca

Delfin SC and Deportivo Cuenca drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on November 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.