Tobermore United 2–0 Queen's University

Tobermore United

FT

2 – 0

Queen's University

4/7/2018

Premier Intermediate League · Round 19Fortwilliam Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tobermore United44%

×Draw24%

Queen's University33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tobermore UnitedExpected goals in this matchQueen's University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.44

Tobermore United

1.69

Queen's University

1.44

Tobermore United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

2.47

creates per match

1.40

1.47

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Tobermore United

2.47

Queen's University

1.40

allows per match

Tobermore United

1.47

Queen's University

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tobermore United+0.00on par

Queen's University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tobermore United ↓

Queen's University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tobermore United or draw

67%

Tobermore United or Queen's University

76%

Draw or Queen's University

56%

Winning margin

Tobermore United wins by 2+

23%

Queen's University wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tobermore United 1+ goals

82%

Tobermore United 2+ goals

50%

Tobermore United 3+ goals

24%

Queen's University 1+ goals

76%

Queen's University 2+ goals

42%

Queen's University 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tobermore United (draw refunded)

57%

Queen's University (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tobermore United at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Queen's University away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tobermore United attack 2.47 + Queen's University defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Queen's University attack 1.40 + Tobermore United defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tobermore United scores more

44%

level

24%

Queen's University scores more

33%

Tobermore United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tobermore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff