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Defensores W vs UNSAAC W — Liga Women 2026

Defensores W
Defensores W
Preview
20:15
UNSAAC W
UNSAAC W
7/25/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Clausura - 1
62%
Defensores W
model favours
62%18%20%
2–1
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Defensores W62%
×Draw18%
UNSAAC W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores W
2.65
UNSAAC W
1.45

Defensores W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Defensores W
1.80
UNSAAC W
0.50

allows per match

Defensores W
2.40
UNSAAC W
3.50

finishing

Defensores W+0.00on par
UNSAAC W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores W ↓

UNSAAC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Defensores W or draw
80%
Defensores W or UNSAAC W
82%
Draw or UNSAAC W
38%

Winning margin

Defensores W wins by 2+
42%
UNSAAC W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Defensores W 1+ goals
93%
Defensores W 2+ goals
74%
Defensores W 3+ goals
48%
UNSAAC W 1+ goals
77%
UNSAAC W 2+ goals
42%
UNSAAC W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Defensores W (draw refunded)
76%
UNSAAC W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

UNSAAC W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores W attack 1.80 + UNSAAC W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.65

UNSAAC W attack 0.50 + Defensores W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Defensores W scores more
62%
level
18%
UNSAAC W scores more
20%

Defensores W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Defensores W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLLWL
W
LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Defensores W face UNSAAC W (Liga Women)

Liga Women returns with Defensores W hosting UNSAAC W. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.