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Defensores W vs Sporting Cristal W — Liga Women 2026

Defensores W
Defensores W
Preview
20:15
Sporting Cristal W
Sporting Cristal W
8/6/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Clausura - 3
47%
Sporting Cristal W
model favours
31%22%47%
1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Defensores W31%
×Draw22%
Sporting Cristal W47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores W
1.56
Sporting Cristal W
1.95

Sporting Cristal W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Defensores W
1.80
Sporting Cristal W
1.50

allows per match

Defensores W
2.40
Sporting Cristal W
1.33

finishing

Defensores W+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores W ↓

Sporting Cristal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Defensores W or draw
53%
Defensores W or Sporting Cristal W
78%
Draw or Sporting Cristal W
69%

Winning margin

Defensores W wins by 2+
15%
Sporting Cristal W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Defensores W 1+ goals
79%
Defensores W 2+ goals
46%
Defensores W 3+ goals
21%
Sporting Cristal W 1+ goals
86%
Sporting Cristal W 2+ goals
58%
Sporting Cristal W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Defensores W (draw refunded)
40%
Sporting Cristal W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Sporting Cristal W away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores W attack 1.80 + Sporting Cristal W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sporting Cristal W attack 1.50 + Defensores W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Defensores W scores more
31%
level
22%
Sporting Cristal W scores more
47%

Sporting Cristal W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting Cristal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLLWL
W
DDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Defensores W face Sporting Cristal W (Liga Women)

Liga Women returns with Defensores W hosting Sporting Cristal W. Match starts August 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.