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Defensores Unidos vs Dock Sud — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
Preview
20:00
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
9/12/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 35Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox
Big match
41%
Defensores Unidos
model favours
41%29%30%

Dock Sud score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Defensores Unidos41%
×Draw29%
Dock Sud30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores Unidos
1.22
Dock Sud
0.99

Defensores Unidos creates 23% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 87 away

creates per match

Defensores Unidos
1.23
Dock Sud
0.99

allows per match

Defensores Unidos
1.00
Dock Sud
1.21

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw
70%
Defensores Unidos or Dock Sud
71%
Draw or Dock Sud
59%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
18%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
70%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
34%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
12%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
63%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
26%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
58%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 79 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.21 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 1.23 + Dock Sud defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dock Sud attack 0.99 + Defensores Unidos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more
41%
level
29%
Dock Sud scores more
30%

Defensores Unidos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Defensores Unidos score first in only 27% of matches
  • 67% of Dock Sud’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Defensores Unidos sit 20, Dock Sud 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Unidos
DLLDL
Sud
WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Defensores Unidos host Dock Sud

September 12, 2026: Defensores Unidos take on Dock Sud in Primera B Metropolitana. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Defensores Unidos host Dock Sud at Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.