Defensores Unidos 0–1 Dock Sud: Result & Stats

Defensores Unidos

FT

0 – 1

Dock Sud

5/23/2014

Primera C · Round 38Estadio Defensores Unidos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Defensores Unidos40%

×Draw28%

Dock Sud32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores UnidosExpected goals in this matchDock Sud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.10

Defensores Unidos

1.27

Dock Sud

1.10

Defensores Unidos creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 75 away

1.42

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Defensores Unidos

1.42

Dock Sud

1.20

allows per match

Defensores Unidos

1.00

Dock Sud

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Dock Sud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw

68%

Defensores Unidos or Dock Sud

72%

Draw or Dock Sud

60%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+

18%

Dock Sud wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals

72%

Defensores Unidos 2+ goals

36%

Defensores Unidos 3+ goals

14%

Dock Sud 1+ goals

67%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

30%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)

56%

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 1.42 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + Defensores Unidos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more

40%

level

28%

Dock Sud scores more

32%

Defensores Unidos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff