Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Independiente De Chivilcoy

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente De Chivilcoy

J. Kruger 59'

M. Olivera 39'

5/5/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 7Estadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR42%

×Draw32%

Independiente De Chivilcoy26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchIndependiente De Chivilcoy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.77

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.07

Independiente De Chivilcoy

0.77

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 39% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 89 away

1.13

creates per match

0.66

0.88

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.13

Independiente De Chivilcoy

0.66

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.88

Independiente De Chivilcoy

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Independiente De Chivilcoy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

74%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or Independiente De Chivilcoy

68%

Draw or Independiente De Chivilcoy

58%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

17%

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

66%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

29%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

9%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals

54%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals

18%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

62%

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.01 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.13 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 0.66 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

42%

level

32%

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more

26%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

39'

59'

62'

62'

63'

69'

B. Rodríguez← F. Ciampichetti

78'

R. Cerdán← W. Romero

78'

L. Rodríguez← A. Sosa

82'

J. Cartechini← L. Pérez

82'

J. Bassani← J. Camaño

82'

J. Bertacín← M. Machado

Defensores

Independiente

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Iturrería

63'▲M. Jaime←▼S. Olano

69'▲B. Rodríguez←▼F. Ciampichetti

82'▲J. Cartechini←▼L. Pérez

82'▲J. Bassani←▼J. Camaño

82'▲J. Bertacín←▼M. Machado

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

JaimeRodríguezCartechiniBassaniBertacín

Manager: H. Olmedo

62'▲J. Ford←▼M. Olivera

62'▲R. Trejo←▼E. Benítez

78'▲R. Cerdán←▼W. Romero

78'▲L. Rodríguez←▼A. Sosa

Independiente De Chivilcoy substitutes

FordTrejoCerdánRodríguez

Torneo Federal A: Defensores de Belgrano VR 1–1 Independiente De Chivilcoy

Defensores de Belgrano VR and Independiente De Chivilcoy drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on May 5, 2024.

Goals: M. Olivera (39'), J. Kruger (59').

The match was played at Estadio Salomón Boeseldín in Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Independiente De Chivilcoy — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Defensores de Belgrano VR 1–1 Independiente De Chivilcoy