Defensores de Belgrano VR 1–1 Gimnasia Concepción

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnasia Concepción

F. Ciampichetti 58'

A. García 31'

6/23/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 15Estadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR50%

×Draw29%

Gimnasia Concepción21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchGimnasia Concepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.74

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.31

Gimnasia Concepción

0.74

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 77% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 107 away

1.11

creates per match

0.60

0.88

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.11

Gimnasia Concepción

0.60

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.88

Gimnasia Concepción

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Gimnasia Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Gimnasia Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

79%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or Gimnasia Concepción

71%

Draw or Gimnasia Concepción

50%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

24%

Gimnasia Concepción wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

73%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

38%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

14%

Gimnasia Concepción 1+ goals

52%

Gimnasia Concepción 2+ goals

17%

Gimnasia Concepción 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

70%

Gimnasia Concepción (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 111 matches

Gimnasia Concepción away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.11 + Gimnasia Concepción defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gimnasia Concepción attack 0.60 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

50%

level

29%

Gimnasia Concepción scores more

21%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. García

57'

S. Olano← L. Pérez

58'

F. Ciampichetti

65'

B. Sablevich← N. Galardi

65'

M. Jaime← J. Bassani

65'

J. Bertacín← M. Machado

69'

N. Germanier← A. García

80'

N. Bustos← F. Ciampichetti

80'

E. Márquez← D. Baltoré

80'

F. Iribarren← A. Passarino

86'

G. Garzón← M. Medina

86'

A. Serafini← L. Viale

Defensores

Gimnasia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ciampiche

▼

Machado

Manager: J. Iturrería

57'▲S. Olano←▼L. Pérez

65'▲B. Sablevich←▼N. Galardi

65'▲M. Jaime←▼J. Bassani

65'▲J. Bertacín←▼M. Machado

80'▲N. Bustos←▼F. Ciampichetti

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

OlanoSablevichJaimeBertacínBustos

Manager: L. Tonelotto

69'▲N. Germanier←▼A. García

80'▲E. Márquez←▼D. Baltoré

80'▲F. Iribarren←▼A. Passarino

86'▲G. Garzón←▼M. Medina

86'▲A. Serafini←▼L. Viale

Gimnasia Concepción substitutes

GermanierMárquezIribarrenGarzónSerafini