Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo — Primera División - Apertura 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 78+ matches
Defensor Sporting41%
Liverpool Montevideo33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Defensor Sporting creates 15% more chances
Season form · 78 home / 83 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Defensor Sporting ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Defensor Sporting at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 78 matches
Liverpool Montevideo away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Defensor Sporting attack 1.54 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41
Liverpool Montevideo attack 1.30 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Defensor Sporting at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Club Nacional
Penarol
Progreso
Fenix
DanubioDefensor Sporting
Wanderers
Atenas
CerroLiverpool Montevideo
Boston River
CA River Plate
El Tanque Sisley
Atletico Torque
Rampla JuniorsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Defensor Sporting host Liverpool Montevideo on Saturday, 5 February 2022 at 22:30. The match is part of the Primera División - Apertura 2026/2027 season.
Primera División - Apertura: Defensor Sporting 0–3 Liverpool Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo beat Defensor Sporting 3-0 in Primera División - Apertura on February 5, 2022.
Goals: F. Mallo (20' o.g.), T. Vecino (37'), I. Rodríguez (57').
Defensor Sporting controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estadio Luis Franzini in Montevideo.