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Defensa Y Justicia vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platense
Platense
R. Loaiza 81'
M. Merentiel 54'
M. Tissera 61'
10/23/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia41%
×Draw30%
Platense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa Y Justicia
1.16
Platense
0.94

Defensa Y Justicia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.11
Platense
0.73

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.16
Platense
1.21

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.21scores less
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw
70%
Defensa Y Justicia or Platense
70%
Draw or Platense
59%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
17%
Platense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
69%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
32%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
11%
Platense 1+ goals
61%
Platense 2+ goals
24%
Platense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
58%
Platense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.11 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Platense attack 0.73 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more
41%
level
30%
Platense scores more
30%

Defensa Y Justicia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. MerentielDefensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia · F
7.6

Match Events

39'
Nahuel Iribarren
54'
M. Merentiel↳ F. Pizzini
61'
M. Bogado← P. Gerzel
61'
F. Curuchet← I. Gómez
61'
M. Tissera↳ H. Tijanovich
66'
R. Loaiza← G. Hachen
67'
Raúl Loaiza
76'
M. Benítez← A. Soto
76'
T. Sandoval← M. Tissera
80'
F. Russo← B. Mansilla
80'
L. Acevedo← K. Lomónaco
81'
R. Loaiza↳ M. Benítez
90+3'
H. Fernández← M. Merentiel

Possession

56%Defensa

Shots

14Defensa

Pass accuracy

52%Defensa

Statistics

DefensaPlatense
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots18
1Corners10
4Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots18
5On Target5
5Off Target8
4Blocked5
7Inside Box11
7Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
478Total Passes349
380Accurate Passes254
79%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
4Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Defensa Y Justicia vs Platense

Defensa Y Justicia beat Platense 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 23, 2021.

Goals: M. Merentiel (54'), M. Tissera (61'), R. Loaiza (81').

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires.