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Dedza Dynamos vs Ekwendeni Hammers — Super League 2026

Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
P. Kamwendo 54', 22', 15'
R. Rapson 35'
I. Msiska 33'
6/26/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dedza Dynamos50%
×Draw28%
Ekwendeni Hammers22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dedza Dynamos
1.33
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.77

Dedza Dynamos creates 73% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 70 away

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos
1.08
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.84

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos
0.70
Ekwendeni Hammers
1.57

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par
Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw
78%
Dedza Dynamos or Ekwendeni Hammers
72%
Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers
50%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
24%
Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
74%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
38%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
15%
Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
54%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
18%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
70%
Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.84 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more
50%
level
28%
Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
22%

Dedza Dynamos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
P. Kamwendo
22'
P. Kamwendo
33'
I. Msiska
35'
R. Rapson
54'
P. Kamwendo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dedza Dynamos 3–2 Ekwendeni Hammers

Dedza Dynamos beat Ekwendeni Hammers 3-2 in Super League on June 26, 2022.

Goals: P. Kamwendo (15', 22', 54'), I. Msiska (33'), R. Rapson (35').

The match was played at Dedza Stadium in Dedza.