Dedza Dynamos 2–1 CIVO United: Result & Stats

Dedza Dynamos

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CIVO United

P. Kamwendo 70', 59'

J. C. Kumwembe 44'

7/10/2022

Super League · Round 12Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dedza Dynamos42%

×Draw31%

CIVO United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dedza DynamosExpected goals in this matchCIVO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.85

Dedza Dynamos

1.13

CIVO United

0.85

Dedza Dynamos creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 73 away

1.08

creates per match

1.00

0.70

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos

1.08

CIVO United

1.00

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos

0.70

CIVO United

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

CIVO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw

73%

Dedza Dynamos or CIVO United

69%

Draw or CIVO United

58%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+

18%

CIVO United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals

68%

Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals

31%

Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals

11%

CIVO United 1+ goals

57%

CIVO United 2+ goals

21%

CIVO United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)

61%

CIVO United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + CIVO United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

CIVO United attack 1.00 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more

42%

level

31%

CIVO United scores more

27%

Dedza Dynamos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

J. C. Kumwembe

59'

P. Kamwendo

70'

P. Kamwendo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff