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Dečić vs Buducnost Podgorica — First League 2019

Dečić
Dečić
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
4/9/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 29DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dečić33%
×Draw26%
Buducnost Podgorica41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dečić
1.23
Buducnost Podgorica
1.40

Buducnost Podgorica creates 14% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 123 away

creates per match

Dečić
1.41
Buducnost Podgorica
1.75

allows per match

Dečić
1.04
Buducnost Podgorica
1.05

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dečić or draw
59%
Dečić or Buducnost Podgorica
74%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
67%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+
14%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals
71%
Dečić 2+ goals
35%
Dečić 3+ goals
13%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
75%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
41%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)
45%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 108 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.41 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Dečić defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dečić scores more
33%
level
26%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
41%

Buducnost Podgorica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dečić vs Buducnost Podgorica

Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica drew 1-1 in First League on April 9, 2024.

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.