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Dečić vs Buducnost Podgorica — Cup 2020

Dečić
Dečić
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgoricaadvanced
5/30/2021CupCup · FinalStadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dečić32%
×Draw25%
Buducnost Podgorica42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dečić
1.28
Buducnost Podgorica
1.50

Buducnost Podgorica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dečić
1.38
Buducnost Podgorica
2.18

allows per match

Dečić
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
1.18

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dečić or draw
58%
Dečić or Buducnost Podgorica
75%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
68%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+
14%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals
72%
Dečić 2+ goals
37%
Dečić 3+ goals
14%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
78%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
44%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)
43%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.38 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.18 + Dečić defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dečić scores more
32%
level
25%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
42%

Buducnost Podgorica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dečić vs Buducnost Podgorica

Buducnost Podgorica beat Dečić 3-1 in Cup on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.