Deacons 3–0 Silver Sands: Result & Stats

Deacons

FT

3 – 0

Silver Sands

2/2/2020

Premier League · Round 1Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Deacons60%

×Draw18%

Silver Sands21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeaconsExpected goals in this matchSilver Sands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.48

Deacons

2.56

Silver Sands

1.48

Deacons creates 73% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 23 away

1.64

creates per match

0.83

2.12

allows per match

3.48

creates per match

Deacons

1.64

Silver Sands

0.83

allows per match

Deacons

2.12

Silver Sands

3.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par

Silver Sands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Silver Sands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Deacons or draw

79%

Deacons or Silver Sands

82%

Draw or Silver Sands

40%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+

39%

Silver Sands wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals

92%

Deacons 2+ goals

72%

Deacons 3+ goals

46%

Silver Sands 1+ goals

77%

Silver Sands 2+ goals

43%

Silver Sands 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)

74%

Silver Sands (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

Silver Sands away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + Silver Sands defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.56

Silver Sands attack 0.83 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Deacons scores more

60%

level

18%

Silver Sands scores more

21%

Deacons at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Deacons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff