De Treffers 0–2 Almere City II: Result & Stats

De Treffers

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Almere City II

11/25/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 14Sportpark Zuid veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

De Treffers41%

×Draw23%

Almere City II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De TreffersExpected goals in this matchAlmere City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.63

De Treffers

1.75

Almere City II

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 51 away

1.82

creates per match

1.86

1.39

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

De Treffers

1.82

Almere City II

1.86

allows per match

De Treffers

1.39

Almere City II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

De Treffers+0.00on par

Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Treffers ↓

Almere City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

De Treffers or draw

64%

De Treffers or Almere City II

77%

Draw or Almere City II

59%

Winning margin

De Treffers wins by 2+

21%

Almere City II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

De Treffers 1+ goals

83%

De Treffers 2+ goals

52%

De Treffers 3+ goals

25%

Almere City II 1+ goals

80%

Almere City II 2+ goals

48%

Almere City II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

De Treffers (draw refunded)

53%

Almere City II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Treffers at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Treffers attack 1.82 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Almere City II attack 1.86 + De Treffers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

De Treffers scores more

41%

level

23%

Almere City II scores more

36%

De Treffers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff