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De Graafschap vs Willem II — Eerste Divisie 2018

De Graafschap
De Graafschap
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Willem II
Willem II
M. Svensson 89'
R. Hillen 77' (OG)
E. Kabangu 23'
12/16/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 18Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

De Graafschap51%
×Draw21%
Willem II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap
2.07
Willem II
1.50

De Graafschap creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

De Graafschap
2.44
Willem II
1.73

allows per match

De Graafschap
1.28
Willem II
1.70

finishing

De Graafschap-0.31scores less
Willem II-0.16scores less

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Willem II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw
72%
De Graafschap or Willem II
79%
Draw or Willem II
49%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+
30%
Willem II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals
87%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
61%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
34%
Willem II 1+ goals
78%
Willem II 2+ goals
44%
Willem II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)
64%
Willem II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.44 + Willem II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.07

Willem II attack 1.73 + De Graafschap defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

De Graafschap scores more
51%
level
21%
Willem II scores more
28%

De Graafschap at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
R. MeerveldWillem IIWillem II · M
8.0

Match Events

23'
E. Kabangu↳ L. Owusu
35'
Charlison Benschop
64'
D. Crowley← M. de Leeuw
71'
Jesse Bosch
72'
D. Gravenberch← M. Kaandorp
75'
M. Svensson← E. Kabangu
76'
Jeremy Bokila
76'
J. Hornkamp← J. Bokila
77'
R. HillenOwn goal
80'
J. Lammers← R. Schouten
80'
H. Acheffay← B. Önal
80'
S. Bisselink← H. Bouihrouchane
89'
M. Svensson↳ R. Meerveld
90+4'
W. Spieringhs← R. Meerveld
90+4'
N. van Berkel← L. Woudenberg

Possession

63%De

Shots

16De

Pass accuracy

55%De

Statistics

DeWillem
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots9
6Corners5
9Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots9
1On Target4
10Off Target4
5Blocked1
6Inside Box6
10Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
521Total Passes318
398Accurate Passes197
76%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Eerste Divisie: De Graafschap 0–3 Willem II

Willem II beat De Graafschap 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on December 16, 2022.

Goals: E. Kabangu (23'), R. Hillen (77' o.g.), M. Svensson (89').

De Graafschap controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion De Vijverberg in Doetinchem.