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De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

De Graafschap
De Graafschap
Preview
18:00
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
5/7/2027Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 37De Vijverberg
Big match
55%
De Graafschap
model favours
55%19%26%

Jong PSV U21 score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

De Graafschap55%
×Draw19%
Jong PSV U2126%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap
2.42
Jong PSV U21
1.64

De Graafschap creates 48% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

De Graafschap
2.48
Jong PSV U21
1.90

allows per match

De Graafschap
1.38
Jong PSV U21
2.35

finishing

De Graafschap-0.19scores less
Jong PSV U21+0.10scores more

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw
74%
De Graafschap or Jong PSV U21
81%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
45%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+
34%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals
91%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
69%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
43%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
81%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
49%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)
68%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.48 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.42

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.90 + De Graafschap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

De Graafschap scores more
55%
level
19%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
26%

De Graafschap at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • De Graafschap score first in only 21% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of De Graafschap’s matches
  • De Graafschap have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4 goals
  • 71% of De Graafschap’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
De Graafschap
Possession-dominant
Jong PSV U21
Balanced
57%Possession52%
81%Pass accuracy82%
18.7ShotsBiggest gap13.3
2.09xG1.76
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
De GraafschapJong PSV U21

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

8
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Avg goals: 4BTTS: 100%
2–13–22–13–14–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Graafschap
LLWDL
U21
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 — Match Preview

De Graafschap face Jong PSV U21 on May 7, 2027 in this Eerste Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

De Graafschap host Jong PSV U21 at De Vijverberg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.