De Graafschap 3–2 Jong PSV U21: Result & Stats

De Graafschap

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Jong PSV U21

11/11/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 15Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

De Graafschap55%

×Draw19%

Jong PSV U2126%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De GraafschapExpected goals in this matchJong PSV U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.64

De Graafschap

2.42

Jong PSV U21

1.64

De Graafschap creates 48% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.48

creates per match

1.90

1.38

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

De Graafschap

2.48

Jong PSV U21

1.90

allows per match

De Graafschap

1.38

Jong PSV U21

2.35

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

De Graafschap-0.19scores less

Jong PSV U21+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Jong PSV U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw

74%

De Graafschap or Jong PSV U21

81%

Draw or Jong PSV U21

45%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+

34%

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals

91%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

69%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

43%

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

81%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

49%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

68%

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.48 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.42

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.90 + De Graafschap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

De Graafschap scores more

55%

level

19%

Jong PSV U21 scores more

26%

De Graafschap at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff