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De Graafschap U21 vs Groningen U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

De Graafschap U21
De Graafschap U21
FT
1 – 0
Groningen U21
Groningen U21
3/23/2024U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 9Sportpark De Bezelhorst Veld 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

De Graafschap U2143%
×Draw22%
Groningen U2135%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap U21
1.97
Groningen U21
1.77

De Graafschap U21 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 70 away

creates per match

De Graafschap U21
2.31
Groningen U21
2.14

allows per match

De Graafschap U21
1.39
Groningen U21
1.63

finishing

De Graafschap U21+0.00on par
Groningen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap U21 ↓

Groningen U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

De Graafschap U21 or draw
65%
De Graafschap U21 or Groningen U21
78%
Draw or Groningen U21
57%

Winning margin

De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+
24%
Groningen U21 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

De Graafschap U21 1+ goals
86%
De Graafschap U21 2+ goals
58%
De Graafschap U21 3+ goals
31%
Groningen U21 1+ goals
83%
Groningen U21 2+ goals
53%
Groningen U21 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)
55%
Groningen U21 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap U21 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

Groningen U21 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap U21 attack 2.31 + Groningen U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.97

Groningen U21 attack 2.14 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

De Graafschap U21 scores more
43%
level
22%
Groningen U21 scores more
35%

De Graafschap U21 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "De Graafschap U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: De Graafschap U21 vs Groningen U21

De Graafschap U21 beat Groningen U21 1-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Bezelhorst Veld 6 in Doetinchem.