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Daytona vs The Villages — USL League Two 2018

Daytona
Daytona
PST
23:00
The Villages
The Villages
7/4/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 48Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium (Daytona Beach, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daytona32%
×Draw28%
The Villages40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daytona
1.09
The Villages
1.26

The Villages creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 42 away

creates per match

Daytona
1.40
The Villages
1.52

allows per match

Daytona
1.00
The Villages
0.79

finishing

Daytona+0.00on par
The Villages+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daytona ↓

The Villages →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Daytona or draw
60%
Daytona or The Villages
72%
Draw or The Villages
68%

Winning margin

Daytona wins by 2+
13%
The Villages wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Daytona 1+ goals
66%
Daytona 2+ goals
30%
Daytona 3+ goals
10%
The Villages 1+ goals
72%
The Villages 2+ goals
36%
The Villages 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Daytona (draw refunded)
44%
The Villages (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daytona at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

The Villages away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daytona attack 1.40 + The Villages defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.09

The Villages attack 1.52 + Daytona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Daytona scores more
32%
level
28%
The Villages scores more
40%

The Villages at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Daytona vs The Villages — Match Preview

Daytona face The Villages on July 4, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Daytona host The Villages at Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium (Daytona Beach, Florida).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.