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Daytona vs Florida Elite — USL League Two 2018

Daytona
Daytona
PST
23:00
Florida Elite
Florida Elite
7/11/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 53Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium (Daytona Beach, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daytona42%
×Draw26%
Florida Elite32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daytona
1.40
Florida Elite
1.19

Daytona creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 27 away

creates per match

Daytona
1.40
Florida Elite
1.37

allows per match

Daytona
1.00
Florida Elite
1.41

finishing

Daytona+0.00on par
Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daytona ↓

Florida Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Daytona or draw
68%
Daytona or Florida Elite
74%
Draw or Florida Elite
58%

Winning margin

Daytona wins by 2+
20%
Florida Elite wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Daytona 1+ goals
75%
Daytona 2+ goals
41%
Daytona 3+ goals
17%
Florida Elite 1+ goals
70%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
33%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Daytona (draw refunded)
57%
Florida Elite (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daytona at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daytona attack 1.40 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + Daytona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Daytona scores more
42%
level
26%
Florida Elite scores more
32%

Daytona at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Daytona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Daytona face Florida Elite (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Daytona hosting Florida Elite. Match starts July 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Daytona host Florida Elite at Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium (Daytona Beach, Florida).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.