Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dayton Dutch Lions vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Dayton Dutch Lions
Dayton Dutch Lions
PST
23:00
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
6/12/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 28Dayton Outpatient Center Stadium (Dayton, Ohio)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dayton Dutch Lions34%
×Draw21%
South Bend Lions44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dayton Dutch Lions
1.77
South Bend Lions
2.02

South Bend Lions creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dayton Dutch Lions
0.90
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Dayton Dutch Lions
2.55
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Dayton Dutch Lions+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dayton Dutch Lions ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dayton Dutch Lions or draw
56%
Dayton Dutch Lions or South Bend Lions
79%
Draw or South Bend Lions
66%

Winning margin

Dayton Dutch Lions wins by 2+
17%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dayton Dutch Lions 1+ goals
83%
Dayton Dutch Lions 2+ goals
53%
Dayton Dutch Lions 3+ goals
26%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
87%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
60%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dayton Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
44%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dayton Dutch Lions at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.55 · 42 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dayton Dutch Lions attack 0.90 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.77

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Dayton Dutch Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dayton Dutch Lions scores more
34%
level
21%
South Bend Lions scores more
44%

South Bend Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "South Bend Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dayton Dutch Lions vs South Bend Lions — Match Preview

Dayton Dutch Lions face South Bend Lions on June 12, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dayton Dutch Lions host South Bend Lions at Dayton Outpatient Center Stadium (Dayton, Ohio).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.