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Dauphins Noirs vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
FT
2 – 0
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
9/21/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dauphins Noirs47%
×Draw29%
Lubumbashi Sport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
1.25
Lubumbashi Sport
0.80

Dauphins Noirs creates 56% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 85 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
76%
Dauphins Noirs or Lubumbashi Sport
71%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
53%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
21%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
71%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
36%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
13%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
55%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
19%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
66%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
47%
level
29%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
24%

Dauphins Noirs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Dauphins Noirs 2–0 Lubumbashi Sport

Dauphins Noirs beat Lubumbashi Sport 2-0 in Ligue 1 on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité de Virunga in Goma.