Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brisbane City vs WDSC Wolves — Brisbane Premier League 2011

Brisbane City
Brisbane City
FT
0 – 5
WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
3/20/2011Brisbane Premier LeagueBrisbane Premier League · Round 17Spencer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brisbane City22%
×Draw18%
WDSC Wolves60%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane City
1.58
WDSC Wolves
2.67

WDSC Wolves creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Brisbane City
1.67
WDSC Wolves
3.00

allows per match

Brisbane City
2.33
WDSC Wolves
1.50

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par
WDSC Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

WDSC Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw
40%
Brisbane City or WDSC Wolves
82%
Draw or WDSC Wolves
78%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+
10%
WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals
79%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
47%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
21%
WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
93%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
74%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)
27%
WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

WDSC Wolves away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 1.67 + WDSC Wolves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

WDSC Wolves attack 3.00 + Brisbane City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Brisbane City scores more
22%
level
18%
WDSC Wolves scores more
60%

WDSC Wolves at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "WDSC Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brisbane Premier League: Brisbane City 0–5 WDSC Wolves

WDSC Wolves beat Brisbane City 5-0 in Brisbane Premier League on March 20, 2011.

The match was played at Spencer Park.