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Sinđelić vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Sinđelić
Sinđelić
FT
3 – 0
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
11/9/2019Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion Mašinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sinđelić56%
×Draw24%
SFS Borac21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sinđelić
1.75
SFS Borac
0.96

Sinđelić creates 82% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sinđelić
1.92
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Sinđelić
0.82
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Sinđelić+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinđelić ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sinđelić or draw
79%
Sinđelić or SFS Borac
76%
Draw or SFS Borac
44%

Winning margin

Sinđelić wins by 2+
31%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sinđelić 1+ goals
83%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
52%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
25%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
62%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
25%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sinđelić (draw refunded)
73%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinđelić at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinđelić attack 1.92 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Sinđelić defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sinđelić scores more
56%
level
24%
SFS Borac scores more
21%

Sinđelić at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Srpska Liga - East: Sinđelić 3–0 SFS Borac

Sinđelić beat SFS Borac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Mašinac in Niš.