Dandenong Thunder 1–0 St. Albans Saints

Dandenong Thunder

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

St. Albans Saints

4/10/2021

Victoria NPL · Round 7George Andrews Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Dandenong Thunder48%

×Draw23%

St. Albans Saints29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandenong ThunderExpected goals in this matchSt. Albans Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.41

Dandenong Thunder

1.88

St. Albans Saints

1.41

Dandenong Thunder creates 33% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 74 away

1.76

creates per match

1.07

1.74

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder

1.76

St. Albans Saints

1.07

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder

1.74

St. Albans Saints

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

St. Albans Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw

71%

Dandenong Thunder or St. Albans Saints

77%

Draw or St. Albans Saints

52%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+

27%

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals

85%

Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals

56%

Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals

29%

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals

76%

St. Albans Saints 2+ goals

41%

St. Albans Saints 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)

63%

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

St. Albans Saints away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.01 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + St. Albans Saints defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.88

St. Albans Saints attack 1.07 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more

48%

level

23%

St. Albans Saints scores more

29%

Dandenong Thunder at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff