Dandenong Thunder 1–1 South Melbourne

Dandenong Thunder

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

South Melbourne

4/9/2022

Victoria NPL · Round 8George Andrews Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Dandenong Thunder35%

×Draw24%

South Melbourne41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandenong ThunderExpected goals in this matchSouth Melbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.61

Dandenong Thunder

1.46

South Melbourne

1.61

South Melbourne creates 10% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 89 away

1.76

creates per match

1.49

1.74

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder

1.76

South Melbourne

1.49

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder

1.74

South Melbourne

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

South Melbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw

59%

Dandenong Thunder or South Melbourne

76%

Draw or South Melbourne

65%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+

16%

South Melbourne wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals

77%

Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals

43%

Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals

18%

South Melbourne 1+ goals

80%

South Melbourne 2+ goals

48%

South Melbourne 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)

46%

South Melbourne (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more

35%

level

24%

South Melbourne scores more

41%

South Melbourne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff