Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
6/4/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 16George Andrews Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Dandenong Thunder31%
×Draw23%
Oakleigh Cannons46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong Thunder
1.44
Oakleigh Cannons
1.79

Oakleigh Cannons creates 24% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.76
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.74
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw
54%
Dandenong Thunder or Oakleigh Cannons
77%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
69%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
14%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
76%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
42%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
18%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
83%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
53%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
40%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.44

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more
31%
level
23%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
46%

Oakleigh Cannons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons

Dandenong Thunder and Oakleigh Cannons drew 0-0 in Victoria NPL on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at George Andrews Reserve in Melbourne.