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Dandenong Thunder vs Melbourne Knights — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
4/23/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 10George Andrews Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Dandenong Thunder46%
×Draw22%
Melbourne Knights32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong Thunder
1.86
Melbourne Knights
1.52

Dandenong Thunder creates 22% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 78 away

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.76
Melbourne Knights
1.29

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.74
Melbourne Knights
1.96

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par
Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

Melbourne Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw
68%
Dandenong Thunder or Melbourne Knights
78%
Draw or Melbourne Knights
54%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
25%
Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
84%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
55%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
28%
Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
78%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
45%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
59%
Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more
46%
level
22%
Melbourne Knights scores more
32%

Dandenong Thunder at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong Thunder vs Melbourne Knights

Dandenong Thunder beat Melbourne Knights 3-1 in Victoria NPL on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at George Andrews Reserve in Melbourne.