Dandenong Thunder 2–1 Heidelberg United

Dandenong Thunder

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Heidelberg United

5/20/2023

Victoria NPL · Round 14George Andrews Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Dandenong Thunder35%

×Draw23%

Heidelberg United42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandenong ThunderExpected goals in this matchHeidelberg United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.71

Dandenong Thunder

1.56

Heidelberg United

1.71

Heidelberg United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

1.76

creates per match

1.68

1.74

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder

1.76

Heidelberg United

1.68

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder

1.74

Heidelberg United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

Heidelberg United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw

58%

Dandenong Thunder or Heidelberg United

77%

Draw or Heidelberg United

65%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+

17%

Heidelberg United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals

79%

Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals

46%

Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals

21%

Heidelberg United 1+ goals

82%

Heidelberg United 2+ goals

51%

Heidelberg United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)

46%

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

Heidelberg United away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + Heidelberg United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Heidelberg United attack 1.68 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more

35%

level

23%

Heidelberg United scores more

42%

Heidelberg United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff