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Dandenong City vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
5/7/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 12Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dandenong City30%
×Draw24%
South Melbourne46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.36
South Melbourne
1.73

South Melbourne creates 27% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 89 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
54%
Dandenong City or South Melbourne
76%
Draw or South Melbourne
70%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
13%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
74%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
39%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
16%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
82%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
52%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
40%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dandenong City scores more
30%
level
24%
South Melbourne scores more
46%

South Melbourne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Dandenong City 0–1 South Melbourne

South Melbourne beat Dandenong City 1-0 in Victoria NPL on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Reserve in Endeavour Hills.